Indirect effects shape species fitness in coevolved mutualistic networks.

Ecological interactions are one of the main forces that sustain Earth's biodiversity. A major challenge for studies of ecology and evolution is to determine how these interactions affect the fitness of species when we expand from studying isolated, pairwise interactions to include networks of interacting species1-4. In networks, chains of effects caused by a range of species have an indirect effect on other species they do not interact with directly, potentially affecting the fitness outcomes of a variety of ecological interactions (such as mutualism)5-7. Here we apply analytical techniques and numerical simulations to 186 empirical mutualistic networks and show how both direct and indirect effects alter the fitness of species coevolving in these networks. Although the fitness of species usually increased with the number of mutualistic partners, most of the fitness variation across species was driven by indirect effects. We found that these indirect effects prevent coevolving species from adapting to their mutualistic partners and to other sources of selection pressure in the environment, thereby decreasing their fitness. Such decreases are distributed in a predictable way within networks: peripheral species receive more indirect effects and experience higher reductions in fitness than central species. This topological effect was also evident when we analysed an empirical study of an invasion of pollination networks by honeybees. As honeybees became integrated as a central species within networks, they increased the contribution of indirect effects on several other species, reducing their fitness. Our study shows how and why indirect effects can govern the adaptive landscape of species-rich mutualistic assemblages.

Mutualistic coevolution and community diversity favour persistence in metacommunities under environmental changes.

Linking local to regional ecological and evolutionary processes is key to understand the response of Earth's biodiversity to environmental changes. Here we integrate evolution and mutualistic coevolution in a model of metacommunity dynamics and use numerical simulations to understand how coevolution can shape species distribution and persistence in landscapes varying in space and time. Our simulations show that coevolution and species richness can synergistically shape distribution patterns by increasing colonization and reducing extinction of populations in metacommunities. Although conflicting selective pressures emerging from mutualisms may increase mismatches with the local environment and the rate of local extinctions, coevolution increases trait matching among mutualists at the landscape scale, counteracting local maladaptation and favouring colonization and range expansions. Our results show that by facilitating colonization, coevolution can also buffer the effects of environmental changes, preventing species extinctions and the collapse of metacommunities. Our findings reveal the mechanisms whereby coevolution can favour persistence under environmental changes and highlight that these positive effects are greater in more diverse systems that retain landscape connectivity.

Structural vulnerability of hospitals, cemeteries, and crematoriums of the city of São Paulo to COVID-19 / Vulnerabilidade estrutural dos hospitais e cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo à COVID-19

This is the first report by the COVID19 Observatory - Group: Contagion Networks analyzing mortality data from the city of São Paulo. In this report, we integrated mortality data for the city of São Paulo between 04/02/2020 and 04/28/2020, with information on the flow of victims between hospitals and cemeteries/crematoriums. We included in our analyzes both confirmed and suspected deaths from COVID-19. The main objectives of this report were: (1) to describe the structure of the flow of victims between locations and (2) to suggest changes in the current flow based on geographical distances in order to avoid a potential overload of the mortuary system. We suggest that the city of São Paulo should plan for a potential overload of the mortuary system (that is, the number of burials), based on the presented results. Thus, our results reinforce the need to adopt specific planning for the management of the extraordinary number of victims of this pandemic. Our predictions are based on the structural analysis of the COVID-19 victim flow network, which shows several hotspots with high vulnerability to system overload. These hotspots concentrate with either the greatest number of deaths (hospital) or of burials (cemetery or crematorium), and therefore have high potential to become overwhelmed by receiving many bodies due to the increase in victims of the pandemic. We recommend special attention to be given to localities on the east side of São Paulo, which has both the most vulnerable hospitals in the city, and also houses cemeteries and crematoriums that have a central role in the network and / or are vulnerable. Based on our optimization analysis, we suggest logistical changes in the current flow of bodies from hospitals to cemeteries/crematoriums so as not to overload the funeral system and minimize transportation costs. In this sense, our results are potentially useful for improving the operational planning of the Municipality of São Paulo, ratifying or rectifying actions underway at the municipal level.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio analisando os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo. Neste relatório, integramos os dados de óbitos da cidade de São Paulo entre os dias 02/04/2020 e 28/04/2020 com informações sobre o fluxo de vítimas entre os hospitais e os cemitérios e crematórios da cidade de São Paulo. Incluímos em nossas análises óbitos confirmados e óbitos suspeitos de COVID-19. Os principais objetivos deste relatório são: (1) descrever a estrutura do fluxo de vítimas entre localidades e (2) sugerir mudanças no fluxo com base em distâncias geográficas de maneira a evitar uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário. Sugere-se à prefeitura da cidade de São Paulo que seja realizado um planejamento para uma potencial sobrecarga do sistema funerário (isto é, número de sepultamentos) da cidade de São Paulo com base nos resultados apresentados. Desta forma, nossos resultados reforçam a necessidade de ser adotado planejamento específico para a gestão dos casos extraordinários visualizados no contexto da pandemia. Esta previsão está baseada na análise estrutural da rede de fluxos de vítimas da COVID-19, que indica a concentração de vários locais com alta vulnerabilidade à sobrecarga do sistema. Tais locais concentram a maior quantidade de óbitos (hospitais) ou a maior concentração de sepultamentos (cemitérios ou crematórios) e tem portanto alto potencial de tornarem-se sobrecarregados por receberem muitos corpos devido ao aumento de vítimas da pandemia. Recomenda-se especial atenção à localidades da zona leste de São Paulo, que apresenta os hospitais mais vulneráveis da cidade e abriga cemitérios e crematórios que possuem papel central na rede e/ou encontram-se vulneráveis. Com base em nossa análise de otimização, sugerimos mudanças logísticas no atual fluxo de corpos de hospitais para cemitérios/crematórios de modo a não sobrecarregar o sistema funerário e minimizar os custos de transporte. Neste sentido, nossos resultados são potencialmente úteis ao aperfeiçoamento do planejamento operacional da Prefeitura Municipal de São Paulo, ratificando ou retificando ações em curso no âmbito municipal.

Vulnerability of the micro-regions of the South of Brazil to the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic / Vulnerabilidade das microrregiões da Região Sul do Brasil à pandemia do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2)

This is the first report of the 'Observatório COVID191 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa' for the South region of Brazil. We have combined data of confirmed cases of the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) for the South available up to 17/04/2020, with structural analyses of road networks, from within and between states, to estimate the vulnerability and potential influence of the South micro-regions to propagate the disease.

Este é o primeiro relatório do Observatório COVID19 - Grupo: Redes de Contágio ­ Laboratório de Estudos de Defesa para a região Sul do Brasil. Combinamos dados de casos confirmados do novo coronavírus (SARS-CoV-2) para o Sul, disponíveis até o dia 17/04/2020, com análises estruturais da rede de rotas rodoviárias intra e interestaduais para estimarmos a vulnerabilidade e potencial influência das microrregiões sulinas na propagação da doença.

The Ecology of Plant Chemistry and Multi-Species Interactions in Diversified Agroecosystems.

Over the past few years, our knowledge of how ecological interactions shape the structure and dynamics of natural communities has rapidly advanced. Plant chemical traits play key roles in these processes because they mediate a diverse range of direct and indirect interactions in a community-wide context. Many chemically mediated interactions have been extensively studied in industrial cropping systems, and thus have focused on simplified, pairwise and linear interactions that rarely incorporate a community perspective. A contrasting approach considers the agroecosystem as a functioning whole, in which food production occurs. It offers an opportunity to better understand how plant chemical traits mediate complex interactions which can enhance or hinder ecosystem functions. In this paper, we argue that studying chemically mediated interactions in agroecosystems is essential to comprehend how agroecosystem services emerge and how they can be guaranteed through ecosystem management. First, we discuss how plant chemical traits affect and are affected by ecological interactions. We then explore research questions and future directions on how studying chemical mediation in complex agroecosystems can help us understand the emergence and management of ecosystem services, specifically biological control and pollination.